UGI Corporation (UGI)
UGI Corporation distributes, stores, transports, and markets energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.52% per annum.
- UGI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $24.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.11 (0.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.13% per annum.
- UGI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UGI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 20, 2021
End date: July 16, 2024
a = 4.0657
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1046
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1046) – 1
= 51.96%
April 20, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y354)
= Exp(a + b × X354 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 517 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0657 + -0.0006 × 517 + 2 × 0.1046)
= Exp(3.9674)
= $52.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y354)
= Exp(a + b × X354 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 517 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0657 + -0.0006 × 517 – 2 × 0.1046)
= Exp(3.5489)
= $34.77
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0657 + -0.0006 × 1,700 + 2 × 0.1046)
= Exp(3.2636)
= $26.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0657 + -0.0006 × 1,700 – 2 × 0.1046)
= Exp(2.8451)
= $17.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.52% per annum.
- UGI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $24.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.11 (0.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 7, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.5893
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0466
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0466) – 1
= 20.51%
August 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y932)
= Exp(a + b × X932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,356 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5893 + 0.0003 × 1,356 + 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(3.1408)
= $23.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y932)
= Exp(a + b × X932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,356 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5893 + 0.0003 × 1,356 – 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(2.9543)
= $19.19
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5893 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(3.2997)
= $27.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5893 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(3.1131)
= $22.49
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.13% per annum.
- UGI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.