Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)
Atmos Energy Corporation, headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is one of the United States' largest natural-gas-only distributors.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 85.13% per annum.
- ATO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $147.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.20% per annum.
- ATO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ATO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: October 28, 2024
a = 1.9325
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0154
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0154) – 1
= 6.34%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9325 + 0.0017 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(4.7390)
= $114.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9325 + 0.0017 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(4.6775)
= $107.50
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9325 + 0.0017 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(5.0056)
= $149.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9325 + 0.0017 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(4.9441)
= $140.34
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 85.13% per annum.
- ATO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $147.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 23, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.5980
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0144
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0144) – 1
= 5.92%
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5980 + 0.0013 × 1,706 + 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(4.8585)
= $128.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5980 + 0.0013 × 1,706 – 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(4.8010)
= $121.63
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5980 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(5.0155)
= $150.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5980 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(4.9580)
= $142.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.20% per annum.
- ATO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.