SpartanNash Co (SPTN)
SpartanNash Company distributes and retails food products. The company is headquartered in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.63% per annum.
- SPTN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $18.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.32% per annum.
- SPTN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SPTN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2022
End date: August 15, 2024
a = 3.9916
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0740
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0740) – 1
= 34.47%
March 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y574)
= Exp(a + b × X574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9916 + -0.0006 × 834 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(3.6118)
= $37.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y574)
= Exp(a + b × X574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9916 + -0.0006 × 834 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(3.3156)
= $27.54
August 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9916 + -0.0006 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(3.0447)
= $21.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9916 + -0.0006 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(2.7485)
= $15.62
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.63% per annum.
- SPTN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $18.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 14, 2023
End date: November 8, 2024
a = 3.3131
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0576
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0576) – 1
= 25.92%
March 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y832)
= Exp(a + b × X832 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3131 + -0.0002 × 1,210 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(3.2118)
= $24.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y832)
= Exp(a + b × X832 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3131 + -0.0002 × 1,210 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(2.9814)
= $19.71
November 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3131 + -0.0002 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(3.1035)
= $22.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3131 + -0.0002 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(2.8731)
= $17.69
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.32% per annum.
- SPTN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.