The Chefs Warehouse Inc (CHEF)
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., distributes specialty food products in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Ridgefield, Connecticut.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 297.98% per annum.
- CHEF price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $43.96 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $40.08 (47.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.72% per annum.
- CHEF price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHEF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2023
End date: April 1, 2024
a = -2.3198
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0795
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 297.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0795) – 1
= 37.43%
September 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3198 + 0.0038 × 1,398 + 2 × 0.0795)
= Exp(3.1296)
= $22.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3198 + 0.0038 × 1,398 – 2 × 0.0795)
= Exp(2.8116)
= $16.64
April 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,593 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3198 + 0.0038 × 1,593 + 2 × 0.0795)
= Exp(3.8675)
= $47.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,593 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3198 + 0.0038 × 1,593 – 2 × 0.0795)
= Exp(3.5495)
= $34.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 297.98% per annum.
- CHEF price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $43.96 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $40.08 (47.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 30, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.5591
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0497
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0497) – 1
= 21.99%
January 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,531 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5591 + 0.0006 × 1,531 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(3.6518)
= $38.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,531 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5591 + 0.0006 × 1,531 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(3.4530)
= $31.60
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5591 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(3.8432)
= $46.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5591 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(3.6444)
= $38.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.72% per annum.
- CHEF price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.