SJW Corporation (SJW)
SJW Group, provides public water services in the United States. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.96% per annum.
- SJW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $55.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.67 (5.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.92% per annum.
- SJW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SJW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 21, 2022
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 5.1069
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0455
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0455) – 1
= 19.94%
November 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y755)
= Exp(a + b × X755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1069 + -0.0007 × 1,096 + 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.4534)
= $85.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y755)
= Exp(a + b × X755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1069 + -0.0007 × 1,096 – 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.2716)
= $71.63
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1069 + -0.0007 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.0479)
= $57.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1069 + -0.0007 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(3.8660)
= $47.75
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.96% per annum.
- SJW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $55.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.67 (5.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: October 29, 2024
a = 3.4246
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0389
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0389) – 1
= 16.82%
February 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4246 + 0.0004 × 1,555 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(4.0576)
= $57.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4246 + 0.0004 × 1,555 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.9021)
= $49.51
October 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4246 + 0.0004 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(4.1465)
= $63.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4246 + 0.0004 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.9910)
= $54.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.92% per annum.
- SJW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.