Middlesex Water Company (MSEX)
Middlesex Water Company owns and operates regulated water and wastewater utility systems. The company is headquartered in Iselin, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.46% per annum.
- MSEX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $65.69 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.96 (13.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.72% per annum.
- MSEX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSEX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2021
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 5.1043
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0801
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0801) – 1
= 37.75%
July 28, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y422)
= Exp(a + b × X422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 615 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1043 + -0.0007 × 615 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.8573)
= $128.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y422)
= Exp(a + b × X422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 615 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1043 + -0.0007 × 615 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.5371)
= $93.42
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,698 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1043 + -0.0007 × 1,698 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.1405)
= $62.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,698 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1043 + -0.0007 × 1,698 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(3.8202)
= $45.61
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.46% per annum.
- MSEX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $65.69 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.96 (13.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.8140
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0534
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0534) – 1
= 23.82%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8140 + 0.0013 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(3.9674)
= $52.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8140 + 0.0013 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(3.7537)
= $42.68
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8140 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(4.3256)
= $75.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8140 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(4.1120)
= $61.07
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.72% per annum.
- MSEX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.