American States Water Company (AWR)
American States Water Company provides water and electricity services to residential, commercial, industrial and other customers in the United States. The company is headquartered in San Dimas, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.09% per annum.
- AWR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $84.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.09% per annum.
- AWR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.8050
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0361
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0361) – 1
= 15.53%
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8050 + 0.0009 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.2865)
= $72.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8050 + 0.0009 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.1421)
= $62.93
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8050 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.5278)
= $92.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8050 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.3834)
= $80.11
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.09% per annum.
- AWR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $84.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 24, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.6907
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0155
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0155) – 1
= 6.38%
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6907 + 0.0004 × 1,707 + 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(4.4195)
= $83.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6907 + 0.0004 × 1,707 – 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(4.3576)
= $78.07
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6907 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(4.4681)
= $87.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6907 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(4.4062)
= $81.96
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.09% per annum.
- AWR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.