Stock Price Trends

Sprouts Farmers Market LLC (SFM)

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. offers fresh, natural and organic food products in the United States. The company is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 200.95% per annum.
  • SFM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $142.75 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.36 (2.41%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 524.53% per annum.
  • SFM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SFM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 31, 2023
End date: November 4, 2024

a = -0.6555

b = 0.0030

s = 0.0405

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 200.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0405) – 1
= 17.56%

October 31, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y991)
= Exp(a + b × X991 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6555 + 0.0030 × 1,440 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(3.7721)
= $43.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y991)
= Exp(a + b × X991 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6555 + 0.0030 × 1,440 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(3.6103)
= $36.98

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6555 + 0.0030 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(4.8890)
= $132.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6555 + 0.0030 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(4.7272)
= $112.98

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 200.95% per annum.
  • SFM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $142.75 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.36 (2.41%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 3, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = -4.2023

b = 0.0050

s = 0.0333

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0050) – 1
= 524.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0333) – 1
= 14.25%

September 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2023 + 0.0050 × 1,748 + 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(4.6370)
= $103.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2023 + 0.0050 × 1,748 – 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(4.5038)
= $90.36

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2023 + 0.0050 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(5.0284)
= $152.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2023 + 0.0050 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(4.8952)
= $133.65

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 524.53% per annum.
  • SFM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.