Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.73% per annum.
- GO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $18.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.34% per annum.
- GO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.82 (4.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 6, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.4419
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0768
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0768) – 1
= 35.95%
July 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y909)
= Exp(a + b × X909 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4419 + -0.0014 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.0768)
= Exp(3.6996)
= $40.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y909)
= Exp(a + b × X909 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4419 + -0.0014 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.0768)
= Exp(3.3925)
= $29.74
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4419 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0768)
= Exp(2.9788)
= $19.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4419 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0768)
= Exp(2.6717)
= $14.46
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.73% per annum.
- GO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $18.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 6.8771
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0690
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0690) – 1
= 31.78%
March 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8771 + -0.0023 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(3.4684)
= $32.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8771 + -0.0023 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(3.1924)
= $24.35
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8771 + -0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(2.8690)
= $17.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8771 + -0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(2.5930)
= $13.37
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.34% per annum.
- GO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.82 (4.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.