Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY)
Casey's General Stores, Inc., operates convenience stores under the names Casey's and Casey's General Store. The company is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.70% per annum.
- CASY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $413.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.61% per annum.
- CASY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CASY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 17, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.0539
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0383
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0383) – 1
= 16.58%
February 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y815)
= Exp(a + b × X815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0539 + 0.0011 × 1,184 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.3958)
= $220.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y815)
= Exp(a + b × X815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0539 + 0.0011 × 1,184 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.2424)
= $189.12
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0539 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(6.0818)
= $437.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0539 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.9285)
= $375.57
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.70% per annum.
- CASY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $413.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 12, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.1640
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0277
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0277) – 1
= 11.73%
June 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1640 + 0.0004 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.9593)
= $387.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1640 + 0.0004 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.8484)
= $346.69
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1640 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(6.0309)
= $416.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1640 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.9200)
= $372.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.61% per annum.
- CASY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.