Redwood Trust Inc (RWT)
Redwood Trust, Inc., is a specialized finance company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Mill Valley, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 71.57% per annum.
- RWT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $7.12 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.28 (3.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.66% per annum.
- RWT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RWT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 21, 2024
End date: October 30, 2024
a = -0.6117
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0436
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 71.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0436) – 1
= 19.07%
February 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6117 + 0.0015 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(1.7740)
= $5.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6117 + 0.0015 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(1.5994)
= $4.95
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6117 + 0.0015 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(2.1467)
= $8.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6117 + 0.0015 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(1.9721)
= $7.19
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 71.57% per annum.
- RWT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $7.12 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.28 (3.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.7452
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0158
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0158) – 1
= 6.51%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7452 + -0.0015 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0158)
= Exp(2.0967)
= $8.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7452 + -0.0015 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0158)
= Exp(2.0336)
= $7.64
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7452 + -0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0158)
= Exp(1.9946)
= $7.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7452 + -0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0158)
= Exp(1.9316)
= $6.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.66% per annum.
- RWT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.