Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinated financings, and other real estate-related commercial debt investments in the United States. . The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.91% per annum.
- ARI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $9.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.93 (11.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.64% per annum.
- ARI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2021
End date: June 5, 2023
a = 2.4627
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0837
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0837) – 1
= 39.79%
March 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4627 + -0.0003 × 467 + 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(2.4966)
= $12.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4627 + -0.0003 × 467 – 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(2.1616)
= $8.69
June 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y889)
= Exp(a + b × X889 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4627 + -0.0003 × 1,293 + 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(2.2603)
= $9.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y889)
= Exp(a + b × X889 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4627 + -0.0003 × 1,293 – 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(1.9253)
= $6.86
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.91% per annum.
- ARI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $9.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.93 (11.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 27, 2022
End date: September 24, 2024
a = 1.8738
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0829
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0829) – 1
= 39.34%
April 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y612)
= Exp(a + b × X612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 889 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8738 + 0.0003 × 889 + 2 × 0.0829)
= Exp(2.2638)
= $9.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y612)
= Exp(a + b × X612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 889 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8738 + 0.0003 × 889 – 2 × 0.0829)
= Exp(1.9321)
= $6.90
September 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8738 + 0.0003 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0829)
= Exp(2.4859)
= $12.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8738 + 0.0003 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0829)
= Exp(2.1542)
= $8.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.64% per annum.
- ARI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.