ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)
ARMOR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. The company is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.40% per annum.
- ARR price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $18.69 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.84 (4.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.88% per annum.
- ARR price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 17, 2023
End date: October 25, 2024
a = 1.7896
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0339
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0339) – 1
= 14.53%
November 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7896 + 0.0007 × 1,389 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(2.8086)
= $16.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7896 + 0.0007 × 1,389 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(2.6729)
= $14.48
October 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7896 + 0.0007 × 1,732 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(3.0434)
= $20.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7896 + 0.0007 × 1,732 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(2.9078)
= $18.32
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.40% per annum.
- ARR price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $18.69 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.84 (4.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 3.3740
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0214
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0214) – 1
= 8.94%
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3740 + -0.0003 × 1,626 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.0023)
= $20.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3740 + -0.0003 × 1,626 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(2.9167)
= $18.48
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3740 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(2.9513)
= $19.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3740 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(2.8657)
= $17.56
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.88% per annum.
- ARR price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.