Paylocity Holdng (PCTY)
Paylocity Holding Corporation provides cloud-based payroll and human capital management software solutions for midsize organizations in the United States. The company is headquartered in Schaumburg, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.77% per annum.
- PCTY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $194.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.20 (4.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 107.35% per annum.
- PCTY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.26 (0.65%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PCTY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2021
End date: October 17, 2024
a = 5.7903
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1163
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1163) – 1
= 59.24%
August 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y428)
= Exp(a + b × X428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7903 + -0.0004 × 623 + 2 × 0.1163)
= Exp(5.7502)
= $314.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y428)
= Exp(a + b × X428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7903 + -0.0004 × 623 – 2 × 0.1163)
= Exp(5.2849)
= $197.34
October 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7903 + -0.0004 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.1163)
= Exp(5.2379)
= $188.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7903 + -0.0004 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.1163)
= Exp(4.7727)
= $118.24
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.77% per annum.
- PCTY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $194.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.20 (4.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2024
End date: October 31, 2024
a = 1.5630
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0270
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 107.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0270) – 1
= 11.42%
June 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5630 + 0.0020 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.9477)
= $140.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5630 + 0.0020 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.8396)
= $126.41
October 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5630 + 0.0020 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.2274)
= $186.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5630 + 0.0020 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.1193)
= $167.22
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 107.35% per annum.
- PCTY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.26 (0.65%).