Stock Price Trends

Olin Corporation (OLN)

Olin Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Clayton, Missouri.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.73% per annum.
  • OLN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $40.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.00% per annum.
  • OLN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OLN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 27, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 4.0157

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0971

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0971) – 1
= 47.48%

August 27, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y444)
= Exp(a + b × X444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0157 + -0.0001 × 645 + 2 × 0.0971)
= Exp(4.1611)
= $64.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y444)
= Exp(a + b × X444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0157 + -0.0001 × 645 – 2 × 0.0971)
= Exp(3.7725)
= $43.49

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0157 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0971)
= Exp(4.0716)
= $58.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0157 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0971)
= Exp(3.6831)
= $39.77

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.73% per annum.
  • OLN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $40.81 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 1, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 6.0203

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0573

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0573) – 1
= 25.76%

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0203 + -0.0013 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(4.1574)
= $63.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0203 + -0.0013 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(3.9282)
= $50.82

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0203 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(3.8232)
= $45.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0203 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(3.5940)
= $36.38

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.00% per annum.
  • OLN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.