Stock Price Trends

Ashland Global Holdings Inc (ASH)

Ashland Global Holdings Inc. offers specialized chemical solutions globally. The company is headquartered in Covington, Kentucky.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.08% per annum.
  • ASH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $59.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.26% per annum.
  • ASH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ASH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 15, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 7.1861

b = -0.0017

s = 0.0470

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0470) – 1
= 20.68%

May 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1861 + -0.0017 × 1,505 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.7330)
= $113.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1861 + -0.0017 × 1,505 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.5450)
= $94.16

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1861 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.1914)
= $66.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1861 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.0035)
= $54.79

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.08% per annum.
  • ASH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $59.29 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 11, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 8.6483

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0313

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -60.26%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0313) – 1
= 13.33%

October 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6483 + -0.0025 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(4.5291)
= $92.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6483 + -0.0025 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(4.4039)
= $81.77

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6483 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(4.0967)
= $60.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6483 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(3.9715)
= $53.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.26% per annum.
  • ASH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.