Stock Price Trends

Cabot Corporation (CBT)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.47% per annum.
  • CBT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $107.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.13% per annum.
  • CBT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CBT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 20, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.6258

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0523

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0523) – 1
= 23.27%

June 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6258 + 0.0012 × 1,307 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.2408)
= $69.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6258 + 0.0012 × 1,307 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.0315)
= $56.35

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6258 + 0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.8394)
= $126.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6258 + 0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.6301)
= $102.53

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.47% per annum.
  • CBT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $107.21 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 16.7875

b = -0.0066

s = 0.0126

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0066) – 1
= -91.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0126) – 1
= 5.15%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.7875 + -0.0066 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.7882)
= $120.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.7875 + -0.0066 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.7380)
= $114.20

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.7875 + -0.0066 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.6953)
= $109.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.7875 + -0.0066 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.6451)
= $104.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.13% per annum.
  • CBT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.