Cabot Corporation (CBT)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.47% per annum.
- CBT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $107.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.13% per annum.
- CBT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CBT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 20, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.6258
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0523
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0523) – 1
= 23.27%
June 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6258 + 0.0012 × 1,307 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.2408)
= $69.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6258 + 0.0012 × 1,307 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.0315)
= $56.35
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6258 + 0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.8394)
= $126.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6258 + 0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.6301)
= $102.53
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.47% per annum.
- CBT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $107.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 16.7875
b = -0.0066
s = 0.0126
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0066) – 1
= -91.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0126) – 1
= 5.15%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.7875 + -0.0066 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.7882)
= $120.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.7875 + -0.0066 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.7380)
= $114.20
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.7875 + -0.0066 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.6953)
= $109.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.7875 + -0.0066 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.6451)
= $104.07
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.13% per annum.
- CBT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.