Movado Group Inc (MOV)
Movado Group, Inc. designs, supplies, markets and distributes watches worldwide. The company is headquartered in Paramus, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.86% per annum.
- MOV price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $18.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.29 (10.79%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.24% per annum.
- MOV price at the close of September 6, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.64 (16.14%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MOV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 18, 2021
End date: September 4, 2024
a = 3.6644
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0738
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0738) – 1
= 34.33%
October 18, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6644 + -0.0003 × 770 + 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(3.6163)
= $37.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6644 + -0.0003 × 770 – 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(3.3212)
= $27.69
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6644 + -0.0003 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(3.3490)
= $28.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6644 + -0.0003 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(3.0539)
= $21.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.86% per annum.
- MOV price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $18.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.29 (10.79%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: September 4, 2024
a = 4.4303
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0290
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0290) – 1
= 12.30%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,556 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4303 + -0.0007 × 1,556 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.4159)
= $30.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,556 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4303 + -0.0007 × 1,556 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.2999)
= $27.11
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4303 + -0.0007 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.2326)
= $25.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4303 + -0.0007 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.1165)
= $22.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.24% per annum.
- MOV price at the close of September 6, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.64 (16.14%).