Stock Price Trends

Maximus Inc (MMS)

Maximus, Inc. provides Business Process Services (BPS) to government health and human services programs worldwide. The company is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.47% per annum.
  • MMS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $79.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.60 (1.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.17% per annum.
  • MMS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.77 (0.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MMS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: November 13, 2024

a = 3.6932

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0709

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0709) – 1
= 32.79%

May 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 897 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6932 + 0.0005 × 897 + 2 × 0.0709)
= Exp(4.2516)
= $70.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 897 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6932 + 0.0005 × 897 – 2 × 0.0709)
= Exp(3.9680)
= $52.88

November 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6932 + 0.0005 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0709)
= Exp(4.6803)
= $107.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6932 + 0.0005 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0709)
= Exp(4.3967)
= $81.18

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.47% per annum.
  • MMS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $79.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.60 (1.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 7, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.0834

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0436

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0436) – 1
= 19.05%

February 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y808)
= Exp(a + b × X808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0834 + 0.0002 × 1,175 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(4.4235)
= $83.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y808)
= Exp(a + b × X808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0834 + 0.0002 × 1,175 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(4.2491)
= $70.04

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0834 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(4.5637)
= $95.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0834 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(4.3893)
= $80.58

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.17% per annum.
  • MMS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.77 (0.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.