ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)
ExlService Holdings, Inc. provides operations management and analysis services in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.88% per annum.
- EXLS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $44.28 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.18 (7.73%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 119.57% per annum.
- EXLS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXLS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 11, 2021
End date: September 25, 2024
a = 3.1814
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1009
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1009) – 1
= 49.69%
August 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y433)
= Exp(a + b × X433 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1814 + 0.0002 × 630 + 2 × 0.1009)
= Exp(3.4980)
= $33.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y433)
= Exp(a + b × X433 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1814 + 0.0002 × 630 – 2 × 0.1009)
= Exp(3.0945)
= $22.08
September 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1814 + 0.0002 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.1009)
= Exp(3.7061)
= $40.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1814 + 0.0002 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.1009)
= Exp(3.3026)
= $27.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.88% per annum.
- EXLS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $44.28 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.18 (7.73%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 28, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = -0.1826
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0252
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 119.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0252) – 1
= 10.59%
May 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1826 + 0.0022 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.4254)
= $30.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1826 + 0.0022 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.3248)
= $27.79
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1826 + 0.0022 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.7723)
= $43.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1826 + 0.0022 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.6717)
= $39.32
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 119.57% per annum.
- EXLS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.