Stock Price Trends

Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc (BR)

Broadridge Financial Solutions is a public corporate services company founded in 2007 as a spin-off from Automatic Data Processing. The main business of Broadridge is as a service provider supplying public companies with proxy statements, annual reports and other financial documents, and shareholder communications solutions, such as virtual annual meetings.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.95% per annum.
  • BR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $224.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.39% per annum.
  • BR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 7, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.1247

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0500

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0500) – 1
= 22.14%

October 7, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,052 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1247 + 0.0007 × 1,052 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.9798)
= $145.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,052 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1247 + 0.0007 × 1,052 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.7798)
= $119.08

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1247 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(5.5354)
= $253.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1247 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(5.3354)
= $207.56

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.95% per annum.
  • BR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $224.84 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 28, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.7461

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0266

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0266) – 1
= 11.24%

November 28, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7461 + 0.0003 × 1,469 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.3051)
= $201.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7461 + 0.0003 × 1,469 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.1986)
= $181.01

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7461 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.4280)
= $227.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7461 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.3215)
= $204.69

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.39% per annum.
  • BR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.