Stock Price Trends

Marcus & Millichap Inc (MMI)

Marcus & Millichap, Inc., an investment brokerage firm, provides real estate investment brokerage and financing services to sellers and buyers of commercial real estate in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Calabasas, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.45% per annum.
  • MMI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $40.13 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.04 (42.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.36% per annum.
  • MMI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MMI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 1, 2021
End date: November 17, 2023

a = 4.1764

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0896

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0896) – 1
= 43.12%

September 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y447)
= Exp(a + b × X447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 650 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1764 + -0.0006 × 650 + 2 × 0.0896)
= Exp(3.9925)
= $54.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y447)
= Exp(a + b × X447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 650 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1764 + -0.0006 × 650 – 2 × 0.0896)
= Exp(3.6340)
= $37.86

November 17, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1764 + -0.0006 × 1,457 + 2 × 0.0896)
= Exp(3.5416)
= $34.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1764 + -0.0006 × 1,457 – 2 × 0.0896)
= Exp(3.1831)
= $24.12

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.45% per annum.
  • MMI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $40.13 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.04 (42.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 19, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.2775

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0958

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0958) – 1
= 46.72%

September 19, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y710)
= Exp(a + b × X710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2775 + 0.0002 × 1,033 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(3.6437)
= $38.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y710)
= Exp(a + b × X710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2775 + 0.0002 × 1,033 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(3.2603)
= $26.06

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2775 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(3.7776)
= $43.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2775 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(3.3943)
= $29.79

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.36% per annum.
  • MMI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.