Stock Price Trends

CoStar Group Inc (CSGP)

CoStar Group, Inc. provides online market information, analysis and services to the commercial real estate, hospitality, residential and related professional industries in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. The company is headquartered in Washington, the District of Columbia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.00% per annum.
  • CSGP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $72.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.13 (4.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.22% per annum.
  • CSGP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSGP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 28, 2024
End date: August 22, 2024

a = 7.0321

b = -0.0016

s = 0.0510

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0510) – 1
= 22.62%

February 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0321 + -0.0016 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(4.6545)
= $105.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0321 + -0.0016 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(4.4506)
= $85.68

August 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0321 + -0.0016 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(4.3749)
= $79.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0321 + -0.0016 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(4.1710)
= $64.78

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.00% per annum.
  • CSGP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $72.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.13 (4.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 31, 2024
End date: November 14, 2024

a = 4.2676

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0259

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.22%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.90%

May 31, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2676 + 0.0000 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.3742)
= $79.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2676 + 0.0000 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.2708)
= $71.58

November 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2676 + 0.0000 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.3798)
= $79.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2676 + 0.0000 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.2763)
= $71.97

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.22% per annum.
  • CSGP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.