Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc (KW)
Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. is a real estate investment company. The company is headquartered in Beverly Hills, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.86% per annum.
- KW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $11.06 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.29 (2.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.26% per annum.
- KW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2021
End date: August 22, 2024
a = 3.5861
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1102
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1102) – 1
= 55.38%
October 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y469)
= Exp(a + b × X469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5861 + -0.0008 × 681 + 2 × 0.1102)
= Exp(3.2733)
= $26.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y469)
= Exp(a + b × X469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5861 + -0.0008 × 681 – 2 × 0.1102)
= Exp(2.8326)
= $16.99
August 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5861 + -0.0008 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.1102)
= Exp(2.4464)
= $11.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5861 + -0.0008 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.1102)
= Exp(2.0057)
= $7.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.86% per annum.
- KW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $11.06 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.29 (2.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2024
End date: November 13, 2024
a = -0.1623
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0476
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0476) – 1
= 20.99%
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1623 + 0.0014 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(2.1807)
= $8.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1623 + 0.0014 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(1.9902)
= $7.32
November 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1623 + 0.0014 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(2.5570)
= $12.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1623 + 0.0014 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(2.3665)
= $10.66
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.26% per annum.
- KW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.