Stock Price Trends

Invitation Homes Inc (INVH)

Invitation Homes is the nation's leading single-family home leasing company, meeting changing lifestyle demands by providing access to high-quality, renovated homes with valuable features like proximity to jobs and access to good schools.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.97% per annum.
  • INVH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $34.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.76 (2.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.07% per annum.
  • INVH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INVH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 24, 2021
End date: February 28, 2024

a = 3.7200

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0730

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0730) – 1
= 33.89%

May 24, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y378)
= Exp(a + b × X378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 551 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7200 + -0.0002 × 551 + 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(3.7569)
= $42.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y378)
= Exp(a + b × X378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 551 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7200 + -0.0002 × 551 – 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(3.4650)
= $31.98

February 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7200 + -0.0002 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(3.5571)
= $35.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7200 + -0.0002 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(3.2653)
= $26.19

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.97% per annum.
  • INVH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $34.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.76 (2.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 7, 2022
End date: October 24, 2024

a = 3.0984

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0393

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0393) – 1
= 17.04%

October 7, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,052 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0984 + 0.0003 × 1,052 + 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(3.4537)
= $31.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,052 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0984 + 0.0003 × 1,052 – 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(3.2964)
= $27.01

October 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0984 + 0.0003 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(3.6504)
= $38.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0984 + 0.0003 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(3.4931)
= $32.89

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.07% per annum.
  • INVH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.