American Homes 4 Rent (AMH)
American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE: AMH) is a leader in the single-family rental industry and American Homes 4 Rent is fast becoming a nationally recognized rental housing brand, known for its high quality, good value and satisfaction. of tenants.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.78% per annum.
- AMH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $37.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.30 (28.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.38% per annum.
- AMH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 19, 2021
End date: May 31, 2023
a = 3.8203
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0638
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0638) – 1
= 29.08%
April 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y353)
= Exp(a + b × X353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 516 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8203 + -0.0003 × 516 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.7866)
= $44.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y353)
= Exp(a + b × X353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 516 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8203 + -0.0003 × 516 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.5313)
= $34.17
May 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8203 + -0.0003 × 1,288 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.5452)
= $34.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8203 + -0.0003 × 1,288 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.2899)
= $26.84
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.78% per annum.
- AMH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $37.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.30 (28.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.0660
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0396
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0396) – 1
= 17.17%
September 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y716)
= Exp(a + b × X716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,041 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0660 + 0.0003 × 1,041 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(3.4780)
= $32.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y716)
= Exp(a + b × X716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,041 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0660 + 0.0003 × 1,041 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(3.3196)
= $27.65
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0660 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(3.7290)
= $41.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0660 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(3.5706)
= $35.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.38% per annum.
- AMH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.