Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc (ELS)
We are a self-managed and self-managed real estate investment trust (?
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.12% per annum.
- ELS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $70.85 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.55 (5.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.10% per annum.
- ELS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 8, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 4.4050
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0600
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0600) – 1
= 27.14%
June 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y388)
= Exp(a + b × X388 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 566 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4050 + -0.0002 × 566 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.4271)
= $83.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y388)
= Exp(a + b × X388 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 566 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4050 + -0.0002 × 566 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.1870)
= $65.83
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4050 + -0.0002 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.2320)
= $68.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4050 + -0.0002 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(3.9919)
= $54.16
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.12% per annum.
- ELS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $70.85 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.55 (5.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.9769
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0472
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0472) – 1
= 20.76%
September 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y712)
= Exp(a + b × X712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9769 + 0.0001 × 1,035 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(4.2123)
= $67.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y712)
= Exp(a + b × X712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9769 + 0.0001 × 1,035 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(4.0236)
= $55.90
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9769 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(4.3201)
= $75.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9769 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(4.1314)
= $62.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.10% per annum.
- ELS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.