Stock Price Trends

Innovative Industrial Properties Inc (IIPR)

Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. is a self-advising Maryland corporation focused on acquiring, owning, and managing specialty properties leased to experienced state-licensed operators for their regulated medical cannabis facilities.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.03% per annum.
  • IIPR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $106.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.41 (11.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.18% per annum.
  • IIPR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IIPR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2023
End date: November 6, 2024

a = 2.3374

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0556

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 67.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0556) – 1
= 24.90%

April 4, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3374 + 0.0014 × 1,231 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.1787)
= $65.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3374 + 0.0014 × 1,231 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.9564)
= $52.27

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3374 + 0.0014 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.9966)
= $147.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3374 + 0.0014 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.7743)
= $118.43

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.03% per annum.
  • IIPR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $106.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.41 (11.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 15, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 20.9727

b = -0.0089

s = 0.0552

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0089) – 1
= -96.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1
= 24.71%

October 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(20.9727 + -0.0089 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.0657)
= $158.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(20.9727 + -0.0089 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(4.8448)
= $127.08

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(20.9727 + -0.0089 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(4.7527)
= $115.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(20.9727 + -0.0089 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(4.5318)
= $92.93

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.18% per annum.
  • IIPR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.