Stock Price Trends

STAG Industrial Inc (STAG)

STAG Industrial, Inc. (NYSE: STAG) is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition and operation of single-tenant industrial properties throughout the United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.01% per annum.
  • STAG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $35.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.00% per annum.
  • STAG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STAG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 22, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 5.5986

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0137

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0137) – 1
= 5.62%

August 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5986 + -0.0011 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(3.7206)
= $41.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5986 + -0.0011 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(3.6659)
= $39.09

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5986 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(3.6218)
= $37.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5986 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(3.5671)
= $35.41

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.01% per annum.
  • STAG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $35.99 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 9.4427

b = -0.0032

s = 0.0088

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -69.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0088) – 1
= 3.57%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4427 + -0.0032 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0088)
= Exp(3.6453)
= $38.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4427 + -0.0032 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0088)
= Exp(3.6102)
= $36.97

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4427 + -0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0088)
= Exp(3.6003)
= $36.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4427 + -0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0088)
= Exp(3.5653)
= $35.35

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.00% per annum.
  • STAG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.