Stock Price Trends

Terreno Realty Corporation (TRNO)

Terreno Realty Corporation and together with its subsidiaries, the?

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.73% per annum.
  • TRNO price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $63.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.04 (10.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.28% per annum.
  • TRNO price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TRNO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 20, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023

a = 4.2405

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0830

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0830) – 1
= 39.35%

May 20, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2405 + -0.0002 × 412 + 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.3277)
= $75.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2405 + -0.0002 × 412 – 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(3.9959)
= $54.37

December 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2405 + -0.0002 × 1,348 + 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.1490)
= $63.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2405 + -0.0002 × 1,348 – 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(3.8171)
= $45.47

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.73% per annum.
  • TRNO price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $63.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.04 (10.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 18, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 3.8433

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0613

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0613) – 1
= 27.80%

May 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y535)
= Exp(a + b × X535 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8433 + 0.0002 × 775 + 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(4.0953)
= $60.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y535)
= Exp(a + b × X535 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8433 + 0.0002 × 775 – 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(3.8501)
= $47.00

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8433 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(4.2707)
= $71.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8433 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(4.0254)
= $56.00

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.28% per annum.
  • TRNO price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.