Stock Price Trends

Globe Life Inc (GL)

Globe Life is a financial services holding company that operates through its wholly owned subsidiaries providing life insurance, annuity, and supplemental health insurance products. The company is based in McKinney, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 145.40% per annum.
  • GL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $109.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.89 (3.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.46% per annum.
  • GL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: October 24, 2024

a = 0.2988

b = 0.0025

s = 0.0304

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 145.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0304) – 1
= 12.92%

May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2988 + 0.0025 × 1,646 + 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(4.4080)
= $82.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2988 + 0.0025 × 1,646 – 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(4.2865)
= $72.71

October 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2988 + 0.0025 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(4.7868)
= $119.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2988 + 0.0025 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(4.6653)
= $106.19

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 145.40% per annum.
  • GL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $109.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.89 (3.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.4057

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0204

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0204) – 1
= 8.49%

August 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4057 + 0.0007 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0204)
= Exp(4.6760)
= $107.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4057 + 0.0007 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0204)
= Exp(4.5945)
= $98.94

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4057 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0204)
= Exp(4.7382)
= $114.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4057 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0204)
= Exp(4.6567)
= $105.29

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.46% per annum.
  • GL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.