Aflac Incorporated (AFL)
Aflac Inc. (American Family Life Assurance Company) is an American insurance company and is the largest provider of supplemental insurance in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.76% per annum.
- AFL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $111.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.57% per annum.
- AFL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AFL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 1, 2024
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 1.9150
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0345
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0345) – 1
= 14.78%
February 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9150 + 0.0016 × 1,534 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.3778)
= $79.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9150 + 0.0016 × 1,534 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.2399)
= $69.40
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9150 + 0.0016 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.8023)
= $121.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9150 + 0.0016 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.6644)
= $106.10
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.76% per annum.
- AFL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $111.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.4371
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0228
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0228) – 1
= 9.55%
August 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4371 + 0.0001 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.7406)
= $114.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4371 + 0.0001 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.6493)
= $104.52
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4371 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.7538)
= $116.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4371 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.6626)
= $105.91
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.57% per annum.
- AFL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.