Unum Group (UNM)
Unum Group is a Chattanooga, Tennessee-based Fortune 500 insurance company formerly known as UnumProvident.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 102.99% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $81.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.32% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 0.9064
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0454
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 102.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0454) – 1
= 19.94%
June 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,527 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9064 + 0.0019 × 1,527 + 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(3.9592)
= $52.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,527 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9064 + 0.0019 × 1,527 – 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(3.7774)
= $43.70
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9064 + 0.0019 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(4.5373)
= $93.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9064 + 0.0019 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(4.3555)
= $77.90
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 102.99% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $81.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 2.8342
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0278
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 36.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0278) – 1
= 11.75%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8342 + 0.0008 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.3159)
= $74.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8342 + 0.0008 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.2048)
= $67.00
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8342 + 0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.4390)
= $84.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8342 + 0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.3278)
= $75.78
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.32% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.