Unum Group (UNM)
Unum Group is a Chattanooga, Tennessee-based Fortune 500 insurance company formerly known as UnumProvident.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 301.60% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $72.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,645.14% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 3, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -2.6919
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0239
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 301.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0239) – 1
= 10.01%
September 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6919 + 0.0038 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(4.0178)
= $55.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6919 + 0.0038 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(3.9224)
= $50.52
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6919 + 0.0038 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(4.3111)
= $74.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6919 + 0.0038 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(4.2157)
= $67.74
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 301.60% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $72.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -9.9957
b = 0.0078
s = 0.0214
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0078) – 1
= 1,645.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0214) – 1
= 8.92%
October 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.9957 + 0.0078 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(4.1562)
= $63.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.9957 + 0.0078 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(4.0707)
= $58.60
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.9957 + 0.0078 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(4.3520)
= $77.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.9957 + 0.0078 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(4.2665)
= $71.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,645.14% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.