Stock Price Trends

Exponent Inc (EXPO)

Exponent, Inc., is a global science and engineering consulting company. The company is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.84% per annum.
  • EXPO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $95.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.99 (5.93%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.89% per annum.
  • EXPO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXPO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 27, 2023
End date: October 24, 2024

a = 2.6518

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0628

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0628) – 1
= 28.57%

October 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y989)
= Exp(a + b × X989 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6518 + 0.0011 × 1,436 + 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(4.4206)
= $83.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y989)
= Exp(a + b × X989 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6518 + 0.0011 × 1,436 – 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(4.1693)
= $64.67

October 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6518 + 0.0011 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(4.8359)
= $125.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6518 + 0.0011 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(4.5847)
= $97.97

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.84% per annum.
  • EXPO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $95.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.99 (5.93%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 10.1039

b = -0.0030

s = 0.0414

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0414) – 1
= 18.03%

September 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1039 + -0.0030 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(4.8442)
= $127.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1039 + -0.0030 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(4.6784)
= $107.60

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1039 + -0.0030 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(4.6564)
= $105.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1039 + -0.0030 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(4.4907)
= $89.18

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.89% per annum.
  • EXPO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.