Equifax Inc (EFX)
Equifax Inc. is an American multinational consumer credit reporting agency and is one of the three largest consumer credit reporting agencies, along with Experian and TransUnion. In addition to credit and demographic data and services to business, Equifax sells credit monitoring and fraud prevention services directly to consumers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.42% per annum.
- EFX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $247.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.89 (2.33%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.00% per annum.
- EFX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EFX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2024
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 9.0777
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0172
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0172) – 1
= 7.12%
August 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0777 + -0.0019 × 1,740 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.7674)
= $319.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0777 + -0.0019 × 1,740 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.6986)
= $298.45
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0777 + -0.0019 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.6136)
= $274.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0777 + -0.0019 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.5448)
= $255.91
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.42% per annum.
- EFX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $247.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.89 (2.33%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 10.5124
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0193
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -63.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0193) – 1
= 8.03%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5124 + -0.0027 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(5.7626)
= $318.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5124 + -0.0027 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(5.6854)
= $294.53
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5124 + -0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(5.5774)
= $264.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5124 + -0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(5.5002)
= $244.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.00% per annum.
- EFX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.