FTI Consulting Inc (FCN)
FTI Consulting, Inc. provides business advisory services to manage change, mitigate risk, and resolve disputes on a global basis. The company is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.82% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $161.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.59% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 7.5490
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0449
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0449) – 1
= 19.68%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,541 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5490 + -0.0013 × 1,541 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.5641)
= $260.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,541 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5490 + -0.0013 × 1,541 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.3845)
= $218.00
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5490 + -0.0013 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.1845)
= $178.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5490 + -0.0013 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.0048)
= $149.13
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.82% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $161.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 20, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 5.5921
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0209
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0209) – 1
= 8.70%
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5921 + -0.0003 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.1479)
= $172.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5921 + -0.0003 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.0645)
= $158.30
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5921 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.1305)
= $169.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5921 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.0471)
= $155.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.59% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.