Stock Price Trends

FTI Consulting Inc (FCN)

FTI Consulting, Inc. provides business advisory services to manage change, mitigate risk, and resolve disputes on a global basis. The company is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.82% per annum.
  • FCN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $161.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.59% per annum.
  • FCN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 7.5490

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0449

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0449) – 1
= 19.68%

July 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,541 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5490 + -0.0013 × 1,541 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.5641)
= $260.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,541 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5490 + -0.0013 × 1,541 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.3845)
= $218.00

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5490 + -0.0013 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.1845)
= $178.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5490 + -0.0013 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.0048)
= $149.13

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.82% per annum.
  • FCN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $161.91 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 20, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 5.5921

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0209

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0209) – 1
= 8.70%

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5921 + -0.0003 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.1479)
= $172.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5921 + -0.0003 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.0645)
= $158.30

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5921 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.1305)
= $169.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5921 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.0471)
= $155.57

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.59% per annum.
  • FCN price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.