Stock Price Trends

FTI Consulting Inc (FCN)

FTI Consulting, Inc. provides business advisory services to manage change, mitigate risk, and resolve disputes on a global basis. The company is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.05% per annum.
  • FCN price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $161.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.56% per annum.
  • FCN price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 7.5243

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0453

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0453) – 1
= 19.87%

July 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5243 + -0.0013 × 1,565 + 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(5.5620)
= $260.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5243 + -0.0013 × 1,565 – 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(5.3807)
= $217.18

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5243 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(5.2209)
= $185.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5243 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(5.0397)
= $154.42

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.05% per annum.
  • FCN price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $161.27 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 13, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 10.8385

b = -0.0032

s = 0.0380

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.56%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.42%

January 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8385 + -0.0032 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.3793)
= $216.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8385 + -0.0032 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.2273)
= $186.29

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8385 + -0.0032 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.1289)
= $168.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8385 + -0.0032 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(4.9769)
= $145.02

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.56% per annum.
  • FCN price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.