FTI Consulting Inc (FCN)
FTI Consulting, Inc. provides business advisory services to manage change, mitigate risk, and resolve disputes on a global basis. The company is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.71% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $197.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.06% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 10.9299
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0352
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0352) – 1
= 15.12%
September 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9299 + -0.0031 × 1,766 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.5307)
= $252.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9299 + -0.0031 × 1,766 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.3899)
= $219.18
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9299 + -0.0031 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.3448)
= $209.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9299 + -0.0031 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.2041)
= $182.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.71% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $197.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 24, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.9914
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0151
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0151) – 1
= 6.24%
October 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9914 + -0.0004 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(5.3316)
= $206.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9914 + -0.0004 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(5.2710)
= $194.61
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9914 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(5.3216)
= $204.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9914 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(5.2610)
= $192.68
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.06% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.