FTI Consulting Inc (FCN)
FTI Consulting, Inc. provides business advisory services to manage change, mitigate risk, and resolve disputes on a global basis. The company is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.05% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $161.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.56% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 7.5243
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0453
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0453) – 1
= 19.87%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5243 + -0.0013 × 1,565 + 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(5.5620)
= $260.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5243 + -0.0013 × 1,565 – 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(5.3807)
= $217.18
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5243 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(5.2209)
= $185.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5243 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0453)
= Exp(5.0397)
= $154.42
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.05% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $161.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 13, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 10.8385
b = -0.0032
s = 0.0380
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.42%
January 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8385 + -0.0032 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.3793)
= $216.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8385 + -0.0032 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.2273)
= $186.29
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8385 + -0.0032 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(5.1289)
= $168.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8385 + -0.0032 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(4.9769)
= $145.02
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.56% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.