Church & Dwight Company Inc (CHD)
Church & Dwight Co., Inc., is a major American manufacturer of household products that is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.69% per annum.
- CHD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $111.29 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $37.84 (25.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.89% per annum.
- CHD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 6, 2022
End date: August 2, 2023
a = 3.2223
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0328
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0328) – 1
= 14.03%
September 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2223 + 0.0010 × 1,020 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.3203)
= $75.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2223 + 0.0010 × 1,020 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.1891)
= $65.96
August 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y928)
= Exp(a + b × X928 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,350 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2223 + 0.0010 × 1,350 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.6543)
= $105.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y928)
= Exp(a + b × X928 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,350 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2223 + 0.0010 × 1,350 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.5231)
= $92.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.69% per annum.
- CHD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $111.29 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $37.84 (25.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 25, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.9918
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0435
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0435) – 1
= 19.02%
November 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y758)
= Exp(a + b × X758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9918 + 0.0004 × 1,100 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.4971)
= $89.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y758)
= Exp(a + b × X758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9918 + 0.0004 × 1,100 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.3229)
= $75.41
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9918 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.7731)
= $118.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9918 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.5990)
= $99.38
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.89% per annum.
- CHD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.