Stock Price Trends

Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB)

Kimberly-Clark Corporation is an American multinational personal care corporation that produces mostly paper-based consumer products. The company manufactures sanitary paper products and surgical & medical instruments. Kimberly-Clark brand name products include Kleenex facial tissue, Kotex feminine hygiene products, Cottonelle, Scott and Andrex toilet paper, Wypall utility wipes, KimWipes scientific cleaning wipes and Huggies disposable diapers and baby wipes.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.41% per annum.
  • KMB price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $136.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.05 (3.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.98% per annum.
  • KMB price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KMB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 27, 2023
End date: October 21, 2024

a = 3.7529

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0261

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0261) – 1
= 10.99%

September 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7529 + 0.0007 × 1,406 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.7683)
= $117.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7529 + 0.0007 × 1,406 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.6640)
= $106.06

October 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7529 + 0.0007 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(5.0355)
= $153.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7529 + 0.0007 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.9312)
= $138.55

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.41% per annum.
  • KMB price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $136.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.05 (3.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 20, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 6.6122

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0206

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0206) – 1
= 8.60%

August 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6122 + -0.0009 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(5.0275)
= $152.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6122 + -0.0009 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(4.9449)
= $140.46

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6122 + -0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(4.9412)
= $139.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6122 + -0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(4.8587)
= $128.85

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.98% per annum.
  • KMB price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.