Stock Price Trends

WD-40 Company (WDFC)

WD-40 Company develops and sells maintenance products and cleaning and home care products in America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.42% per annum.
  • WDFC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $244.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.37 (2.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.86% per annum.
  • WDFC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WDFC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 8, 2022
End date: December 19, 2024

a = 4.5464

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0780

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0780) – 1
= 36.61%

July 8, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y571)
= Exp(a + b × X571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 828 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5464 + 0.0006 × 828 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(5.2162)
= $184.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y571)
= Exp(a + b × X571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 828 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5464 + 0.0006 × 828 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.9042)
= $134.86

December 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5464 + 0.0006 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(5.7716)
= $321.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5464 + 0.0006 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(5.4596)
= $235.01

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.42% per annum.
  • WDFC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $244.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.37 (2.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 21, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 5.4229

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0663

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 1.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0663) – 1
= 30.35%

November 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y917)
= Exp(a + b × X917 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4229 + 0.0001 × 1,329 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(5.6225)
= $276.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y917)
= Exp(a + b × X917 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4229 + 0.0001 × 1,329 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(5.3574)
= $212.18

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4229 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(5.6475)
= $283.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4229 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(5.3825)
= $217.56

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.86% per annum.
  • WDFC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.