Stock Price Trends

WD-40 Company (WDFC)

WD-40 Company develops and sells maintenance products and cleaning and home care products in America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.00% per annum.
  • WDFC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $277.62 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.87 (4.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.67% per annum.
  • WDFC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WDFC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 29, 2022
End date: April 9, 2024

a = 3.9919

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0566

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0566) – 1
= 25.42%

September 29, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9919 + 0.0010 × 1,043 + 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(5.1273)
= $168.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9919 + 0.0010 × 1,043 – 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(4.9008)
= $134.40

April 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9919 + 0.0010 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(5.6741)
= $291.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9919 + 0.0010 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(5.4476)
= $232.21

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.00% per annum.
  • WDFC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $277.62 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.87 (4.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 11, 2023
End date: November 8, 2024

a = 4.7963

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0689

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0689) – 1
= 31.76%

July 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7963 + 0.0004 × 1,328 + 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(5.4953)
= $243.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7963 + 0.0004 × 1,328 – 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(5.2195)
= $184.84

November 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7963 + 0.0004 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(5.7006)
= $299.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7963 + 0.0004 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(5.4248)
= $226.97

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.67% per annum.
  • WDFC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.