Stock Price Trends

WD-40 Company (WDFC)

WD-40 Company develops and sells maintenance products and cleaning and home care products in America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.78% per annum.
  • WDFC price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $240.55 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.79 (6.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.02% per annum.
  • WDFC price at the close of March 5, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.29 (3.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WDFC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: December 19, 2024

a = 4.4241

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0711

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0711) – 1
= 32.89%

September 20, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y640)
= Exp(a + b × X640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 928 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4241 + 0.0007 × 928 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(5.2093)
= $182.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y640)
= Exp(a + b × X640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 928 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4241 + 0.0007 × 928 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.9249)
= $137.68

December 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4241 + 0.0007 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(5.7782)
= $323.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4241 + 0.0007 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(5.4938)
= $243.19

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.78% per annum.
  • WDFC price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $240.55 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.79 (6.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 4, 2024
End date: February 24, 2025

a = 9.3763

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0329

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0329) – 1
= 14.06%

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,704 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3763 + -0.0022 × 1,704 + 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(5.7127)
= $302.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,704 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3763 + -0.0022 × 1,704 – 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(5.5811)
= $265.38

February 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3763 + -0.0022 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(5.4676)
= $236.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3763 + -0.0022 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(5.3360)
= $207.69

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.02% per annum.
  • WDFC price at the close of March 5, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.29 (3.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.