Stock Price Trends

Celsius Holdings Inc (CELH)

Celsius Holdings, Inc. develops, markets, distributes, and sells calorie-burning functional fitness drinks in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 85.46% per annum.
  • CELH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $27.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.94% per annum.
  • CELH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CELH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 12.8996

b = -0.0053

s = 0.1136

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0053) – 1
= -85.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1136) – 1
= 57.49%

March 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8996 + -0.0053 × 1,565 + 2 × 0.1136)
= Exp(4.8601)
= $129.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8996 + -0.0053 × 1,565 – 2 × 0.1136)
= Exp(4.4059)
= $81.93

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8996 + -0.0053 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1136)
= Exp(3.4815)
= $32.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8996 + -0.0053 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1136)
= Exp(3.0273)
= $20.64

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 85.46% per annum.
  • CELH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $27.71 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 7.5647

b = -0.0023

s = 0.0571

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.94%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.65%

September 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5647 + -0.0023 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.6409)
= $38.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5647 + -0.0023 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.4126)
= $30.35

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5647 + -0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.4632)
= $31.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5647 + -0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.2349)
= $25.40

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.94% per annum.
  • CELH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.