Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a beverage company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.44% per annum.
- KDP price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $32.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.62% per annum.
- KDP price at the close of December 2, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.28 (3.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KDP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.5690
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0571
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.64%
March 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5690 + -0.0001 × 479 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.6507)
= $38.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5690 + -0.0001 × 479 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.4224)
= $30.64
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5690 + -0.0001 × 1,697 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.5682)
= $35.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5690 + -0.0001 × 1,697 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.3399)
= $28.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.44% per annum.
- KDP price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $32.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 27, 2023
End date: October 25, 2024
a = 2.5494
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0445
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0445) – 1
= 19.50%
September 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5494 + 0.0006 × 1,394 + 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(3.4484)
= $31.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5494 + 0.0006 × 1,394 – 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(3.2702)
= $26.32
October 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5494 + 0.0006 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(3.6773)
= $39.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5494 + 0.0006 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(3.4991)
= $33.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.62% per annum.
- KDP price at the close of December 2, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.28 (3.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.