Stock Price Trends

PepsiCo Inc (PEP)

PepsiCo, Inc. is an American based multinational food, snack, and beverage corporation headquartered in Harrison, New York, in the hamlet of Purchase. PepsiCo's business encompasses all aspects of the food and beverage market. It oversees the manufacturing, distribution, and marketing of its products.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.80% per annum.
  • PEP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $149.94 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.18% per annum.
  • PEP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PEP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 24, 2022
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 5.2482

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0455

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0455) – 1
= 19.97%

October 24, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y646)
= Exp(a + b × X646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 936 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2482 + -0.0001 × 936 + 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(5.2399)
= $188.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y646)
= Exp(a + b × X646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 936 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2482 + -0.0001 × 936 – 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(5.0578)
= $157.25

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2482 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(5.1455)
= $171.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2482 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.9635)
= $143.09

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.80% per annum.
  • PEP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $149.94 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 29, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 6.4185

b = -0.0008

s = 0.0302

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.85%

July 29, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,580 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4185 + -0.0008 × 1,580 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.2233)
= $185.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,580 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4185 + -0.0008 × 1,580 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.1024)
= $164.42

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4185 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.0287)
= $152.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4185 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.9077)
= $135.33

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.18% per annum.
  • PEP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.