Stock Price Trends

Cogent Communications Group Inc (CCOI)

Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. provides high-speed Internet access, private networks and data center colocation services in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Australia and Africa. The company is headquartered in Washington, the District of Columbia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 208.86% per annum.
  • CCOI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $81.40 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.04 (0.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.83% per annum.
  • CCOI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CCOI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 3, 2024
End date: November 8, 2024

a = -1.1396

b = 0.0031

s = 0.0511

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 208.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0511) – 1
= 22.70%

June 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,656 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1396 + 0.0031 × 1,656 + 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(4.0792)
= $59.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,656 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1396 + 0.0031 × 1,656 – 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(3.8747)
= $48.17

November 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1396 + 0.0031 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(4.5674)
= $96.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1396 + 0.0031 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(4.3628)
= $78.48

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 208.86% per annum.
  • CCOI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $81.40 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.04 (0.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 15, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 6.8387

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0200

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0200) – 1
= 8.33%

October 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8387 + -0.0013 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(4.4682)
= $87.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8387 + -0.0013 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(4.3882)
= $80.49

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8387 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(4.4197)
= $83.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8387 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0200)
= Exp(4.3397)
= $76.68

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.83% per annum.
  • CCOI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.