Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)
Iridium Communications Inc. provides mobile voice and data communications products and services to businesses, governments in the United States and other countries, non-governmental organizations, and consumers around the world. The company is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.25% per annum.
- IRDM price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $29.82 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.24 (32.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.56% per annum.
- IRDM price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IRDM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2023
End date: September 13, 2024
a = 6.1129
b = -0.0018
s = 0.1018
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1018) – 1
= 50.29%
January 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y742)
= Exp(a + b × X742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1129 + -0.0018 × 1,074 + 2 × 0.1018)
= Exp(4.4346)
= $84.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y742)
= Exp(a + b × X742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1129 + -0.0018 × 1,074 – 2 × 0.1018)
= Exp(4.0272)
= $56.11
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,690 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1129 + -0.0018 × 1,690 + 2 × 0.1018)
= Exp(3.3552)
= $28.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,690 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1129 + -0.0018 × 1,690 – 2 × 0.1018)
= Exp(2.9478)
= $19.06
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.25% per annum.
- IRDM price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $29.82 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.24 (32.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 20, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 2.8791
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0610
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0610) – 1
= 27.64%
February 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8791 + 0.0003 × 1,484 + 2 × 0.0610)
= Exp(3.4091)
= $30.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8791 + 0.0003 × 1,484 – 2 × 0.0610)
= Exp(3.1651)
= $23.69
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8791 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0610)
= Exp(3.5032)
= $33.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8791 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0610)
= Exp(3.2591)
= $26.03
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.56% per annum.
- IRDM price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.