Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc (BXMT)
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., a real estate financing company, originates senior secured commercial property loans in North America, Europe and Australia. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.51% per annum.
- BXMT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $18.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.30% per annum.
- BXMT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BXMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2021
End date: September 11, 2024
a = 3.2908
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0949
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0949) – 1
= 46.20%
March 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y326)
= Exp(a + b × X326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 476 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2908 + -0.0003 × 476 + 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(3.3504)
= $28.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y326)
= Exp(a + b × X326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 476 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2908 + -0.0003 × 476 – 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(2.9706)
= $19.50
September 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2908 + -0.0003 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(2.9995)
= $20.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2908 + -0.0003 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(2.6197)
= $13.73
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.51% per annum.
- BXMT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $18.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 21, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.6206
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0862
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0862) – 1
= 41.16%
February 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y817)
= Exp(a + b × X817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6206 + 0.0002 × 1,189 + 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(2.9921)
= $19.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y817)
= Exp(a + b × X817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6206 + 0.0002 × 1,189 – 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(2.6473)
= $14.12
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6206 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(3.0988)
= $22.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6206 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(2.7540)
= $15.71
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.30% per annum.
- BXMT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.