Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured financial assets in the commercial, single-family, and multi-family real estate markets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Uniondale, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.27% per annum.
- ABR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.75 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.96 (36.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.41% per annum.
- ABR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 19, 2021
End date: June 5, 2023
a = 2.6739
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0957
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0957) – 1
= 46.62%
February 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y313)
= Exp(a + b × X313 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6739 + -0.0003 × 457 + 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(2.7434)
= $15.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y313)
= Exp(a + b × X313 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6739 + -0.0003 × 457 – 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(2.3607)
= $10.60
June 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y889)
= Exp(a + b × X889 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6739 + -0.0003 × 1,293 + 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(2.5205)
= $12.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y889)
= Exp(a + b × X889 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6739 + -0.0003 × 1,293 – 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(2.1379)
= $8.48
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.27% per annum.
- ABR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.75 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.96 (36.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.9877
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1006
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1006) – 1
= 49.56%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 933 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9877 + 0.0003 × 933 + 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(2.5107)
= $12.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 933 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9877 + 0.0003 × 933 – 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(2.1082)
= $8.23
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9877 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(2.8186)
= $16.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9877 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(2.4161)
= $11.20
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.41% per annum.
- ABR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.