KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, focuses primarily on originating and acquiring senior loans secured by commercial real estate (CRE) assets. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.78% per annum.
- KREF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $11.43 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.25 (12.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 59.34% per annum.
- KREF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KREF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2021
End date: July 22, 2024
a = 3.1069
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0964
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0964) – 1
= 47.02%
May 24, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y378)
= Exp(a + b × X378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 551 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1069 + -0.0005 × 551 + 2 × 0.0964)
= Exp(3.0041)
= $20.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y378)
= Exp(a + b × X378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 551 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1069 + -0.0005 × 551 – 2 × 0.0964)
= Exp(2.6187)
= $13.72
July 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1069 + -0.0005 × 1,706 + 2 × 0.0964)
= Exp(2.3845)
= $10.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1069 + -0.0005 × 1,706 – 2 × 0.0964)
= Exp(1.9991)
= $7.38
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.78% per annum.
- KREF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $11.43 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.25 (12.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.1642
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0622
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 59.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0622) – 1
= 28.26%
February 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,541 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1642 + 0.0013 × 1,541 + 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(2.2555)
= $9.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,541 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1642 + 0.0013 × 1,541 – 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(2.0067)
= $7.44
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1642 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(2.6193)
= $13.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1642 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0622)
= Exp(2.3704)
= $10.70
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 59.34% per annum.
- KREF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.