KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc (KREF)
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, focuses primarily on originating and acquiring senior loans secured by commercial real estate (CRE) assets. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.21% per annum.
- KREF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $10.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.61 (17.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.30% per annum.
- KREF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KREF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 28, 2021
End date: July 22, 2024
a = 2.9656
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0985
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0985) – 1
= 48.31%
April 28, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9656 + -0.0005 × 392 + 2 × 0.0985)
= Exp(2.9599)
= $19.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9656 + -0.0005 × 392 – 2 × 0.0985)
= Exp(2.5658)
= $13.01
July 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,573 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9656 + -0.0005 × 1,573 + 2 × 0.0985)
= Exp(2.3490)
= $10.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,573 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9656 + -0.0005 × 1,573 – 2 × 0.0985)
= Exp(1.9549)
= $7.06
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.21% per annum.
- KREF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $10.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.61 (17.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 2.0134
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0982
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0982) – 1
= 48.12%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y739)
= Exp(a + b × X739 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0134 + 0.0002 × 1,072 + 2 × 0.0982)
= Exp(2.4168)
= $11.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y739)
= Exp(a + b × X739 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0134 + 0.0002 × 1,072 – 2 × 0.0982)
= Exp(2.0239)
= $7.57
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0134 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0982)
= Exp(2.5622)
= $12.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0134 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0982)
= Exp(2.1693)
= $8.75
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.30% per annum.
- KREF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.