American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL)
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. designs, designs and manufactures transmission line and metal forming products in the United States, Mexico, South America, China, other Asian countries, and Europe. The company is headquartered in Detroit, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.73% per annum.
- AXL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $6.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.03% per annum.
- AXL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AXL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.4550
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1094
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1094) – 1
= 54.91%
February 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4550 + -0.0003 × 440 + 2 × 0.1094)
= Exp(2.5370)
= $12.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4550 + -0.0003 × 440 – 2 × 0.1094)
= Exp(2.0993)
= $8.16
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4550 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1094)
= Exp(2.1058)
= $8.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4550 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1094)
= Exp(1.6681)
= $5.30
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.73% per annum.
- AXL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $6.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 12, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.5043
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0617
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0617) – 1
= 27.99%
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5043 + -0.0009 × 1,482 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.2353)
= $9.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5043 + -0.0009 × 1,482 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(1.9886)
= $7.31
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5043 + -0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(1.9121)
= $6.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5043 + -0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(1.6654)
= $5.29
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.03% per annum.
- AXL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.