Stock Price Trends

Xpel Inc (XPEL)

XPEL, Inc. manufactures, sells, distributes, and installs aftermarket automotive products in the United States, China, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East / Africa, and internationally. The company is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.29% per annum.
  • XPEL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $43.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.45% per annum.
  • XPEL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XPEL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 21, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 4.5921

b = -0.0004

s = 0.2026

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2026) – 1
= 124.90%

April 21, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y354)
= Exp(a + b × X354 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 517 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5921 + -0.0004 × 517 + 2 × 0.2026)
= Exp(4.7789)
= $118.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y354)
= Exp(a + b × X354 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 517 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5921 + -0.0004 × 517 – 2 × 0.2026)
= Exp(3.9684)
= $52.90

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5921 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2026)
= Exp(4.2260)
= $68.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5921 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2026)
= Exp(3.4155)
= $30.43

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.29% per annum.
  • XPEL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $43.25 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 13, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 6.1562

b = -0.0014

s = 0.1543

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1543) – 1
= 85.35%

April 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y852)
= Exp(a + b × X852 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1562 + -0.0014 × 1,239 + 2 × 0.1543)
= Exp(4.7053)
= $110.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y852)
= Exp(a + b × X852 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1562 + -0.0014 × 1,239 – 2 × 0.1543)
= Exp(4.0883)
= $59.64

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1562 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1543)
= Exp(3.8718)
= $48.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1562 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1543)
= Exp(3.2547)
= $25.91

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.45% per annum.
  • XPEL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.