Gentherm Inc (THRM)
Gentherm Incorporated designs, develops, manufactures and markets thermal management technologies. The company is headquartered in Northville, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.58% per annum.
- THRM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $41.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.86% per annum.
- THRM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of THRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 29, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.7579
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0954
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0954) – 1
= 46.47%
July 29, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y424)
= Exp(a + b × X424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7579 + -0.0005 × 617 + 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(4.6218)
= $101.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y424)
= Exp(a + b × X424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7579 + -0.0005 × 617 – 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(4.2402)
= $69.42
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7579 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(3.9812)
= $53.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7579 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(3.5996)
= $36.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.58% per annum.
- THRM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $41.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 7.2725
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0423
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0423) – 1
= 18.45%
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2725 + -0.0019 × 1,695 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(4.0573)
= $57.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2725 + -0.0019 × 1,695 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(3.8880)
= $48.81
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2725 + -0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(3.8022)
= $44.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2725 + -0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(3.6329)
= $37.82
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.86% per annum.
- THRM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.